It looks pretty clear now that we’ve peaked in the U.S., probably on April 9-10, days 40-41 on my graphs. Two weeks ago I estimated the peak to be at about day 39 because of the epi curves of actual data, not because the modelers were telling us so. I’ve now created a new normal distribution with the mean at day 41 and designed to fit the data (no models required). It shows a total of 33,000 deaths at day 72 but it’s essentially over by day 60, which is 15 days from now. This is the teal colored “Curve 5” in the graphs:
There will no doubt be some sort of tail of the curve and the disease may never go away completely, but neither does the seasonal flu which kills 30,000-60,000 people in the U.S. every year. By the end of April this thing will be over. After that, use sensible precautions, particularly for the elderly and those with underlying conditions, but let’s get back to life.
Then why are some governors, like Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan, expanding their stay at home orders when the outbreak is declining?
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